A comprehensive climate research study conducted by the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) suggests an escalation in heavy rainfall frequency in specific regions of Saudi Arabia in the coming years.
According to the study, the western coast of the Red Sea, the eastern side along the Arabian Gulf coast, and the southwestern regions are anticipated to experience a surge in heavy rainfall rates. Climate model simulations indicate a general upsurge in total rainfall across most parts of the Kingdom.
The frequency of heavy rainfall is projected to intensify in areas including Madinah, Al-Qassim, Riyadh, the Eastern Province, Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and the western parts of Najran under medium and high climate scenarios for the near future (2021-2040).
Furthermore, this trend of increased heavy rainfall is anticipated to persist into the middle and end of the current century. The study foresees a heightened occurrence of heavy rainfall events, particularly in the southwestern regions, with 25 to 30 events expected under high scenarios during the latter decades of the century.
The study identifies a significant elevation in rainfall rates and amounts in specific regions, while noting a decrease in others. Notably, analysis of rainfall data in cities like Abha, Jeddah, and Riyadh reveals unprecedented rainfall intensities occurring within short timeframes.
These findings provide valuable insights for impact assessment, adaptation strategies, and disaster management in the Kingdom. They serve as essential inputs for long-term national planning initiatives, facilitating informed decision-making to foster sustainable development across various sectors.
